Will the S&P 500 be between 7200 and 7399.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will the S&P 500 be between 7200 and 7399.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market prices an extremely narrow S&P 500 band (200-point range, roughly 2.6% of current levels) at just 11¢, implying only an 11% probability of landing precisely in that 7200-7399.99 corridor by end-2026.
Analysis
This market prices an extremely narrow S&P 500 band (200-point range, roughly 2.6% of current levels) at just 11¢, implying only an 11% probability of landing precisely in that 7200-7399.99 corridor by end-2026. The asymmetric implied yields (1,269% for Yes versus 15.7% for No) reflect the long-shot nature of this specific outcome, though the 635% risk-adjusted yield suggests meaningful edge potential if the true probability exceeds 11%. With $71,821 in open interest but only $1,877 in daily volume and a tight 1¢ spread, liquidity is constrained for a market with 259 days to expiry, making this a speculative position rather than a liquid hedge.
Resolution rules
If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 7200-7399.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B7300 yes 100