Will the S&P 500 be between 6000 and 6199.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST
Leader sits at 14% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 13%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
8,000 to 8,199.99
Outcomes
12
winner-take-all
Runner-up
13¢
7,800 to 7,999.99
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$18K
liquid
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
146 days
Venue
Kalshi
12 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the S&P 500
Will the S&P 500 be between 8000 and 8199.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 8,000 to 8,199.99
KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B8100
Will the S&P 500 be between 8200 and 8399.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 8,200 to 8,399.99
KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B8300
Will the S&P 500 be between 7800 and 7999.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,800 to 7,999.99
KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B7900
Will the S&P 500 be between 7400 and 7599.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,400 to 7,599.99
KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B7500
Will the S&P 500 be between 6600 and 6799.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 6,600 to 6,799.99
KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B6700
Will the S&P 500 be above 9000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 9,000.01 or above
KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-T9000
Will the S&P 500 be between 7600 and 7799.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,600 to 7,799.99
KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B7700
Will the S&P 500 be between 6800 and 6999.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 6,800 to 6,999.99
KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B6900
Will the S&P 500 be between 7200 and 7399.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,200 to 7,399.99
KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B7300
Will the S&P 500 be between 7000 and 7199.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,000 to 7,199.99
KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B7100
Will the S&P 500 be between 6200 and 6399.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 6,200 to 6,399.99
KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B6300
Will the S&P 500 be between 8400 and 8599.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 8,400 to 8,599.99
KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B8500
Analysis
This contract pays off if the S&P 500 closes between 6000 and 6199.99 on December 31, 2026, implying a 14% probability traders assign to that outcome. The market is currently pricing in significantly higher year-end levels, with the modal outcomes clustering around 6600-6800 and substantial probability mass extending toward 7000-7200. A 14% probability for the 6000-6199 range reflects trader expectations that the index would need to either stagnate or decline from current levels over the next five months. Resolution depends entirely on the S&P 500's price at market close on December 31, 2026. Key drivers include corporate earnings trajectories, Federal Reserve policy decisions through year-end, and macroeconomic data releases that shape rate expectations. Any significant recession, market correction, or shift in Fed policy would compress valuations and increase the likelihood of this lower band outcome.
- ›Current S&P 500 level relative to 6000-6199 range: higher price levels reduce the probability this band is reached at year-end
- ›Implied market expectations from competing contracts: 4% probability assigned to 6600-6799 band suggests upside bias, making lower bands less likely
- ›Fed rate path through 2026: higher-for-longer policy or accelerating hikes would increase recession risk and lower equity valuations
- ›Corporate earnings growth trajectory: slowing or negative revisions would pressure multiples and favor lower year-end levels
- ›Market volatility and drawdown magnitude: a severe 15-20% correction from current levels would materially increase this outcome's probability
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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