Will the S&P 500 be between 6000 and 6199.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST
Leader sits at 13% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 12%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
7,800 to 7,999.99
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
12¢
8,000 to 8,199.99
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$14K
liquid
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
189 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the S&P 500 be between
Will the S&P 500 be between 7800 and 7999.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,800 to 7,999.99
KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B7900
Will the S&P 500 be between 7400 and 7599.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,400 to 7,599.99
KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B7500
Will the S&P 500 be between 7600 and 7799.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,600 to 7,799.99
KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B7700
Will the S&P 500 be between 7200 and 7399.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,200 to 7,399.99
KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B7300
Will the S&P 500 be between 8000 and 8199.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 8,000 to 8,199.99
KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B8100
Will the S&P 500 be between 8200 and 8399.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 8,200 to 8,399.99
KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B8300
Will the S&P 500 be between 6400 and 6599.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 6,400 to 6,599.99
KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B6500
Will the S&P 500 be between 6800 and 6999.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 6,800 to 6,999.99
KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B6900
Will the S&P 500 be between 6600 and 6799.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 6,600 to 6,799.99
KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B6700
Analysis
This contract reflects a 14% probability that the S&P 500 closes between 6,000 and 6,199.99 on December 31, 2026. The market is pricing in a substantially higher year-end close, with the highest probability (14%) centered around 7,600–7,799.99, suggesting traders expect continued gains over the next seven months. The lower 6,000–6,199 range represents a significant drawdown scenario—roughly 15% below current levels. This probability could shift based on macroeconomic data, Federal Reserve policy signals, corporate earnings trends, and broader market volatility. The resolution point is fixed: the S&P 500's official closing price on December 31, 2026 at 4pm EST.
- ›Current S&P 500 level (approximately 5,200–5,300 range as of early May 2026) relative to the 6,000–6,199 target, implying modest upside is required for this contract to resolve yes
- ›Distribution of probabilities across all outcome buckets shows median expectations around 7,000–7,400, leaving the 6,000–6,199 range in the lower tail of outcomes
- ›Federal Reserve interest rate trajectory and inflation data through Q3 and Q4 2026 will materially influence whether the market reaches or retreats from this price level
- ›Earnings growth and valuations through mid-2026 earnings seasons (Q1 reports already underway, Q2 in July) will test whether current forward expectations remain plausible
- ›Market volatility regimes and geopolitical or economic shocks between now and year-end could compress or expand the probability of lower-range outcomes
What moved the line
- Jun 187,800 to 7,999.99↑4pp11→15¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 217,600 to 7,799.99↑3pp11→14¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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