Will the S&P 500 be between 7600 and 7799.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will the S&P 500 be between 7600 and 7799.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1268.9% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 15.7% on the No side, suggesting the 11¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of the S&P 500 landing in this specific 200-point band two years out.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1268.9% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 15.7% on the No side, suggesting the 11¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of the S&P 500 landing in this specific 200-point band two years out. The 7-day price movement from 8¢ to 10¢ indicates recent accumulation of Yes positions despite thin liquidity ($822.57 daily volume against $91.5k open interest), and the high Cliff Risk Index of 9 warns of potential sharp moves near expiration. With 259 days to resolution and a tight 1¢ spread, this appears to be a contrarian opportunity if you believe mean reversion or range-bound behavior is underpriced relative to the binary tail risk the market is pricing in.
Resolution rules
If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 7600-7799.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B7700 yes 100