What is the current probability for "Will Italy inflation rate YoY prel for April 2026 be above 1.6%?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 96¢ (96% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 30, 2026. 9 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Italy inflation rate YoY prel for April 2026 be above 1.6%?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 402.3% and 41129.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Italy inflation rate YoY prel for April 2026 be above 1.6%?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Italy inflation rate YoY prel for April 2026 be above 1.6%?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 96% probability that Will Italy inflation rate YoY prel for April 2026 be above 1.6%?. This contract trades at 96¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme dysfunction with zero liquidity ($0 volume, $0 open interest) and a 9¢ spread despite being priced at 0¢, suggesting no meaningful trading activity.

██████████████████████████████████████░░

96¢mid

Bid/Ask 91/100¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Apr 30, 2026·9d remaining

KXITCPIPREL-26APR30-T1.6

Analysis

47h ago

This market shows extreme dysfunction with zero liquidity ($0 volume, $0 open interest) and a 9¢ spread despite being priced at 0¢, suggesting no meaningful trading activity. The astronomical implied yields (329.9% for Yes, 33,728% for No) are artifacts of the zero price rather than genuine market signals. With only 11 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 10, this contract is essentially dead and should be disregarded as a reliable inflation forecast.

Resolution rules

If Italy inflation rate YoY prel for April 2026 is above 1.6 , then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 402.3%

IY (No) 41129.6%

Adj IY 18531%

CRI 10

Overround 4.5%

LAS 0.10

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	402.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	41129.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	18531%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	10	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	4.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.10	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

9¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 2:44:57 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 2:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXITCPIPREL-26APR30-T1.6 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →