What is the current probability for "Hiroshima Dragonflies vs Shiga Lakestars Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 53¢ (53% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 6, 2026. 14 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Hiroshima Dragonflies vs Shiga Lakestars Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2295.3% and 2918.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Hiroshima Dragonflies vs Shiga Lakestars Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Hiroshima Dragonflies vs Shiga Lakestars Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 53% probability that Hiroshima Dragonflies vs Shiga Lakestars Winner?. This contract trades at 53¢ on Kalshi, closing May 6, 2026. This market exhibits extreme dysfunction with a 0¢ price despite a 76¢ spread and zero liquidity ($0 volume, $0 open interest), suggesting no actual trading activity.

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53¢

Bid/Ask 53/54¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $2,425.75·OI $2,353.75·Closes May 6, 2026·14d remaining

KXJBLEAGUEGAME-26APR220605DRASHL-DRA

7-day price64 snapshots · 3 regime

56¢53¢ current

Apr 196¢Apr 22

Analysis

2d ago

This market exhibits extreme dysfunction with a 0¢ price despite a 76¢ spread and zero liquidity ($0 volume, $0 open interest), suggesting no actual trading activity. The astronomical implied yields (28,670% for Yes, 162.4% for No) and 22,348% realized volatility are artifacts of the illiquid pricing rather than genuine market expectations. With 17 days to expiry and a game originally scheduled for April 22, 2026, this contract appears to have either already resolved or faces significant uncertainty about its status, making the market unreliable for prediction purposes.

Resolution rules

If Hiroshima Dragonflies wins the Hiroshima Dragonflies vs Shiga Lakestars professional Japan B League basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 22, 2026 at 6:05 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2295.3%

IY (No) 2918.7%

Adj IY 2864%

CRI 1

RV 2540%

VR 3.04

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2295.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	2918.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2864%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	2540%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.04	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.8/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.02	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 7:51:16 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 7:38:24 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXJBLEAGUEGAME-26APR220605DRASHL-DRA yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →