What is the current probability for "Hiroshima Dragonflies vs Shiga Lakestars Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 46¢ (46% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 6, 2026. 14 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Hiroshima Dragonflies vs Shiga Lakestars Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3058.8% and 2219.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Hiroshima Dragonflies vs Shiga Lakestars Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Hiroshima Dragonflies vs Shiga Lakestars Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 46% probability that Hiroshima Dragonflies vs Shiga Lakestars Winner?. This contract trades at 46¢ on Kalshi, closing May 6, 2026. This market exhibits extreme dysfunction with a 0¢ Yes price generating an implausible 28,687% implied yield, while the 76¢ spread and zero volume/open interest suggest no genuine liquidity exists.

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46¢

Bid/Ask 46/52¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $929.57·OI $816.89·Closes May 6, 2026·14d remaining

KXJBLEAGUEGAME-26APR220605DRASHL-SHL

7-day price89 snapshots · 6 regime

46¢46¢ current

Apr 196¢Apr 22

Analysis

2d ago

This market exhibits extreme dysfunction with a 0¢ Yes price generating an implausible 28,687% implied yield, while the 76¢ spread and zero volume/open interest suggest no genuine liquidity exists. The game was originally scheduled for April 22, 2026 but the market doesn't close until May 6, indicating a likely postponement or scheduling issue that hasn't been reflected in pricing. With only 17 days to resolution and a realized volatility of 14,535%, this appears to be a stale or abandoned market rather than an active prediction vehicle.

Resolution rules

If Shiga Lakestars wins the Hiroshima Dragonflies vs Shiga Lakestars professional Japan B League basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 22, 2026 at 6:05 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3058.8%

IY (No) 2219.6%

Adj IY 2793%

CRI 1

RV 8970%

VR 3.53

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3058.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	2219.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2793%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	8970%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.53	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.09	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 9:54:31 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 9:53:24 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXJBLEAGUEGAME-26APR220605DRASHL-SHL yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →