Will the number of Representatives Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick who leave the U.S. House of Representatives (with an actual departure date, per EFFECTIVELEAVE contract) be exactly 4 before June 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 27% probability that Will the number of Representatives Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick who leave.... This contract trades at 27¢ on Kalshi, closing June 1, 2026. This market is pricing in an extremely unlikely scenario—all four specific representatives departing within 46 days—at just 40¢, reflecting the astronomical 1252% implied yield on the Yes side that signals deep skepticism about simultaneous exits.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an extremely unlikely scenario—all four specific representatives departing within 46 days—at just 40¢, reflecting the astronomical 1252% implied yield on the Yes side that signals deep skepticism about simultaneous exits. The sharp 18¢ price surge over seven days combined with low 24-hour volume of $1,098 and modest open interest of $8,745 suggests thin liquidity and potential for volatile swings, though the tight 4¢ spread indicates reasonable two-sided interest. With a Cliff Risk Index of 2 and realized volatility at 258%, this contract carries significant tail risk, likely driven by binary political events (resignations, expulsions, or special circumstances) that could dramatically shift probabilities in the final 46 days.
Resolution rules
If all four of Representatives Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick leave the U.S. House of Representatives (based on actual departure date, per EFFECTIVELEAVE) before June 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
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sf trade KXLEAVEHOUSECOMBO-27JAN01-B260601 yes 100