Will the number of Representatives Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick who leave the U.S. House of Representatives (with an actual departure date, per EFFECTIVELEAVE contract) be exactly 4 before July 1, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
30%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
131 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the number of Representatives Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick who leave the U.S. House of Representatives (with an actual departure date, per EFFECTIVELEAVE contract) be exactly 4 before November 3, 2026
Analysis
This contract resolves YES if all four named representatives—Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick—depart the House before July 1, 2026, with official effective departure dates recorded. At 64%, the market suggests this outcome is more likely than not, though still uncertain. The probability reflects that departures are individually possible but requiring all four to leave within two months is a high bar. Key drivers include voluntary retirements, special election triggers, or unexpected circumstances affecting each representative. The contract becomes increasingly constrained as time passes; by early June, any representative who hasn't announced departure effectively lowers the probability toward zero. Recent political shifts, personal circumstances, or announced retirements in May 2026 would be primary catalysts for significant price movement. Without current announcements of coordinated departures, the 64% level appears to price in a non-trivial but not dominant expectation of multiple simultaneous House exits.
- ›As of May 3, 2026, none of these four representatives have announced confirmed departure dates; the contract requires all four to achieve official effective departures within 59 days
- ›If even one representative has not departed by June 30, the contract resolves NO, making the all-or-nothing structure highly restrictive compared to partial outcomes
- ›Political circumstances (health issues, electoral challenges, leadership roles elsewhere) that would trigger House departures are not uniform across these four individuals and would need to align unusually
- ›The deadline creates accelerating pressure: by mid-June, any representative without a filed departure notice essentially eliminates that person's contribution to a YES resolution
- ›Public announcements or resignation letters with specified effective dates would be the primary real-time signals; absence of such filings in May-June would push probability sharply downward
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (30% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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