Who will win Alaska U.S. House of Representatives election
Leader sits at 48% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 38%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Nick Begich III
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
38¢
Bill Hill
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
479 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win Alaska U.S. House of Representatives election
Who will win Alaska U.S. House of Representatives election?: Bill Hill
KXALASKAHOUSE-26-BHIL
Who will win Alaska U.S. House of Representatives election?: Nick Begich III
KXALASKAHOUSE-26-NBEG
Who will win Alaska U.S. House of Representatives election?: Matt Schultz
KXALASKAHOUSE-26-MSCH
Analysis
Markets currently assign a 65% probability to Nick Begich III winning Alaska's House seat, with Bill Hill at 21% and Matt Schultz at 8%. This reflects Begich's substantial lead in the race heading into the 2026 cycle. The pricing likely reflects name recognition from his 2022 Senate bid, fundraising performance, and recent polling if available. Key factors driving these probabilities include candidate fundraising totals, endorsement patterns from Alaska Republicans, and any recent polling data. The primary election results, if applicable, or early general election surveys would significantly move these odds. With $0 trading volume in the past 24 hours across all three contracts, the market for this race remains relatively inactive, suggesting limited recent information flow or trader engagement. The actual election outcome in November 2026 will ultimately determine whether these probabilities proved calibrated.
- ›Candidate fundraising records and cash-on-hand as reported in FEC filings
- ›Recent public polling showing candidate support levels among Alaska voters
- ›Primary election results if they occur before general election
- ›Endorsements from Alaska Republican leadership and national figures
- ›Voter registration trends and turnout patterns in Alaska's House districts
What moved the line
- Jul 7Nick Begich III↓19pp66→47¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 7Bill Hill↑15pp24→39¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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