Will Howard Lutnick announce their departure as Commerce Secretary before Jul 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 29% probability that Will Howard Lutnick announce their departure as Commerce Secretary before Jul 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 29¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. The market is pricing in a 35% departure probability for Lutnick over the next 75 days, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (986% for Yes vs.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 35% departure probability for Lutnick over the next 75 days, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (986% for Yes vs. 239% for No) suggest severe illiquidity with only $391.6 open interest and minimal $2.6 daily volume. The 4¢ spread and modest 1¢ price appreciation over seven days indicate low conviction, though the neutral regime score and Cliff Risk Index of 2 suggest the market isn't pricing in imminent announcement risk despite the high Yes-side yield.
Resolution rules
If Howard Lutnick leaves (or announces they will leave) as Commerce Secretary before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLUTNICKANNOUNCEOUT-26APR-JUL01 yes 100