Will Howard Lutnick leaves Commerce Secretary in before May?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Howard Lutnick leaves Commerce Secretary in before May?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. The market is pricing in an extremely low 2% probability of Lutnick's departure, yet the implied yield on a Yes resolution reaches an extraordinary 100,000%, suggesting significant mispricing or tail-risk hedging activity.
Analysis
The market is pricing in an extremely low 2% probability of Lutnick's departure, yet the implied yield on a Yes resolution reaches an extraordinary 100,000%, suggesting significant mispricing or tail-risk hedging activity. Price has declined sharply from 7¢ to 3¢ over seven days with only $1,355 in 24-hour volume against $54k open interest, indicating thin liquidity and potential for volatile moves in the final 12 days before expiration. The 32 cliff risk index warrants caution, as concentrated positions could trigger sharp repricing near the May 1 deadline.
Resolution rules
If Howard Lutnick leaves as Commerce Secretary before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLUTNICKOUT-26MAY01 yes 100