Will Howard Lutnick leaves Commerce Secretary in before May
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
9%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Sep 1, 2026
67 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Howard Lutnick leaves Commerce Secretary in before September
Will Howard Lutnick leaves Commerce Secretary in before September?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXLUTNICKOUT-26SEP01
Analysis
This 35% probability indicates traders assess there is roughly a one-in-three chance that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick leaves his position before May 3, 2027. The current price reflects that Lutnick has maintained his Cabinet role for several months since the administration began, suggesting relative stability in the position. However, Cabinet turnover has historically been common in Trump administrations, and factors like policy disagreements, conflicts with other officials, or investigations could prompt early departures. The most specific uncertainty centers on whether Lutnick will depart within the coming year rather than serving a full term. Traders appear to distinguish between Lutnick leaving before June 2026 (priced at just 5 cents, indicating very low near-term odds) and the broader year-long timeframe, suggesting they believe any departure, if it occurs, is more likely later in 2026 or early 2027.
- ›Lutnick's current tenure duration and relative absence of recent public controversies involving his position
- ›Historical Cabinet turnover rates under Trump compared to other administrations
- ›Ongoing legal, regulatory, or policy developments affecting commerce policy or Lutnick's specific portfolio
- ›Competitive dynamics between Cabinet members and potential power struggles that could force turnover
- ›Market-implied distinction between imminent departure (5% for before June 1) versus extended timeframe (35% for before May 2027), suggesting traders expect stability in the near term
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (9% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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