What is the current probability for "Will Chicago C win the 2026 Pro Baseball National League Championship?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 8¢ (8% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on October 31, 2028. 919 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Chicago C win the 2026 Pro Baseball National League Championship?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 456.7% and 3.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Will Chicago C win the 2026 Pro Baseball National League Championship?

Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will Chicago C win the 2026 Pro Baseball National League Championship?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing October 31, 2028. The market is pricing Chicago C at just 7¢ with a notably asymmetric risk profile—the Yes side offers an extreme 747% implied yield versus only 2.1% for No, suggesting minimal near-term conviction despite the long 928-day runway.

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8¢

Bid/Ask 8/9¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $851.45·OI $70,178·Closes Oct 31, 2028·919d remaining

KXMLBNL-26-CHC

7-day price23 snapshots · 56 regime

9¢8¢ current

Apr 216¢Apr 25

Analysis

8d ago

The market is pricing Chicago C at just 7¢ with a notably asymmetric risk profile—the Yes side offers an extreme 747% implied yield versus only 2.1% for No, suggesting minimal near-term conviction despite the long 928-day runway. Liquidity is moderate at $43k open interest with a tight 2¢ spread, though the $10.6k daily volume indicates this isn't a heavily traded contract, and the 19 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution around resolution mechanics. The neutral regime and substantial gap between risk-adjusted yield (224%) and headline yield suggests the market may be pricing in either structural uncertainty about the team's 2026 prospects or simply thin participation in a niche sports betting contract.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 9¢(Δ -1¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.92IY 1952.5%Close-time delta 17524h

Resolution rules

If Chicago C win the 2026 Pro Baseball National League Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 456.7%

IY (No) 3.5%

Adj IY 400%

CRI 12

RV 869%

VR 3.86

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	456.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	3.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	400%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	12	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	869%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.86	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.13	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/25/2026, 11:45:57 PM

Observability lowEvent type sports

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/25/2026, 11:38:51 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMLBNL-26-CHC yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →