Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026
Leader sits at 20% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 6%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Matt Quatraro
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
6¢
A.J. Hinch
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$50
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 1, 2026
72 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026
Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026?: Joe Espada
KXCOACHOUTMLB-26DEC01-JESP
Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026?: Dave Roberts
KXCOACHOUTMLB-26DEC01-DROB
Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026?: Kurt Suzuki
KXCOACHOUTMLB-26DEC01-KSUZ
Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026?: Matt Quatraro
KXCOACHOUTMLB-26DEC01-MQUA
Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026?: A.J. Hinch
KXCOACHOUTMLB-26DEC01-AHIN
Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026?: Walt Weiss
KXCOACHOUTMLB-26DEC01-WWEI
Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026?: Torey Lovullo
KXCOACHOUTMLB-26DEC01-TLOU
Analysis
This represents the market's assessment that at least one Major League Baseball manager will be fired, resign, or otherwise depart before December 1, 2026—about 150 days from now. The 43% probability for A.J. Hinch reflects uncertainty around mid-season managerial changes, which typically occur when teams underperform or face organizational conflicts. The timing matters because we're currently in the 2026 regular season, so this period captures the remainder of the season through the playoffs and immediate offseason. The main drivers are current team performance relative to expectations, playoff positioning decisions, and any organizational instability. The biggest inflection point will be the trade deadline and subsequent playoff performance, which historically correlate with managerial changes.
- ›A.J. Hinch's Houston Astros performance through the trade deadline and playoff push—teams typically make managerial changes if postseason hopes fade or internal conflict emerges
- ›Year-to-date win-loss records and playoff probability for teams managed by the other candidates (Boone, Counsell, Butera, Albernaz) relative to organizational expectations
- ›Historical baseline: MLB averages roughly 1-2 mid-season managerial changes per season, making a ~43% probability for a single manager within 5 months realistic but not heavily favored
- ›Any reported front-office tensions, contract disputes, or public statements indicating job security concerns for listed managers
- ›Playoff qualification thresholds for each manager's team—teams eliminated from contention are more likely to make leadership changes before October
What moved the line
- Sep 19Joe Espada↓51pp58→7¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Kurt Suzuki↓29pp35→6¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19A.J. Hinch↓27pp35→8¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Matt Quatraro↑10pp20→30¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Matt Quatraro↓10pp30→20¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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