SimpleFunctions
5 source contracts·Kalshi 5·refreshed just now·Closes Oct 31, 2028 · 859d

Will Pittsburgh win the 2026 Pro Baseball National League Championship

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 17% across 5 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

17%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

17%

5 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$11K

5 contracts

Closes

Oct 31, 2028

859 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 21% (31 days, 31 points)Aggregate: 21% on 2026-06-24
Aggregate of 5 contracts · 31d

Bracket families

5 clusters across 5 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Los Angeles D win the 2026 Pro Baseball National League Championship

1 contract$6K

Cluster 2

Will Atlanta win the 2026 Pro Baseball National League Championship

1 contract$3K

Cluster 3

Will Milwaukee win the 2026 Pro Baseball National League Championship

1 contract$1K

Cluster 4

Will Chicago C win the 2026 Pro Baseball National League Championship

1 contract$633

Cluster 5

Will Philadelphia win the 2026 Pro Baseball National League Championship

1 contract$329

Analysis

This probability indicates that markets assess Pittsburgh has a 12% chance of winning the 2026 National League Championship. The team's relatively modest odds reflect typical preseason expectations for a franchise not widely favored among title contenders. Key drivers of this level include Pittsburgh's roster composition compared to division rivals, their recent performance trajectory, and how transactions during the offseason altered competitive standing. The probability will likely shift as the regular season progresses and teams' actual performance becomes observable. The regular season concludes in early October, with playoff outcomes determining the final champion. Spring training results, trade deadlines in July, and August performance runs will provide data points for probability adjustments throughout the year.

  • Pittsburgh's win-loss record and division standing relative to National League rivals at key checkpoints (May, July, September)
  • Quality of starting rotation and bullpen performance metrics compared to other contending teams in their division
  • Off-season roster transactions and injury status of key position players and pitchers through season start
  • Head-to-head winning percentage against top National League teams and divisional competition
  • Betting volume and probability shifts on this contract versus other National League championship markets

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.