San Jose vs Austin Winner?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that San Jose vs Austin Winner?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with an 8548% implied yield on the Yes side despite Austin being favored at 23¢, suggesting the contract may be severely undervalued or facing liquidity constraints given the minimal $62.88 open interest.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with an 8548% implied yield on the Yes side despite Austin being favored at 23¢, suggesting the contract may be severely undervalued or facing liquidity constraints given the minimal $62.88 open interest. The sharp 7-day price recovery from 5¢ to 19¢ combined with 717% realized volatility and a 4-level cliff risk index indicates recent information arrival has dramatically shifted sentiment, though the 18-day window to resolution and $61.88 daily volume suggest limited market depth for position entry or exit. The 4¢ spread and neutral regime score (0.5) suggest equilibrium pricing is uncertain, making this a high-risk speculation rather than a stable prediction.
Resolution rules
If Austin wins the San Jose vs Austin professional MLS soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 22, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMLSGAME-26APR22SJATX-ATX yes 100