San Jose vs Austin Winner?
Prediction markets currently give a 68% probability that San Jose vs Austin Winner?. This contract trades at 68¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2026. This market shows extreme annualized yields (1778% for Yes, 2261% for No) driven by its imminent 18-day expiration and minimal liquidity of just $379 open interest, creating a classic "cliff risk" scenario where pricing becomes increasingly volatile as resolution approaches.
Analysis
This market shows extreme annualized yields (1778% for Yes, 2261% for No) driven by its imminent 18-day expiration and minimal liquidity of just $379 open interest, creating a classic "cliff risk" scenario where pricing becomes increasingly volatile as resolution approaches. The 6¢ spread is notably wide relative to the 58¢ midpoint, and the realized volatility of 146% combined with a low vol ratio of 0.35 suggests the market has experienced sharp moves despite low trading activity ($163 in 24h volume). The 7-day price decline from 56¢ to 53¢ indicates a modest shift toward No, though with such thin liquidity and a neutral regime, this could easily reverse on minimal new information arriving at 0.5 events per hour.
Resolution rules
If San Jose wins the San Jose vs Austin professional MLS soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 22, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMLSGAME-26APR22SJATX-SJ yes 100