San Jose vs Austin Winner?
Prediction markets currently give a 21% probability that San Jose vs Austin Winner?. This contract trades at 21¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2026. This market displays severe illiquidity dysfunction with zero volume and open interest despite an astronomical 8548% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 0¢ price is a stale or erroneous quote rather than a genuine equilibrium.
Analysis
This market displays severe illiquidity dysfunction with zero volume and open interest despite an astronomical 8548% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 0¢ price is a stale or erroneous quote rather than a genuine equilibrium. The 9¢ spread, 674% realized volatility, and cliff risk index of 4 indicate extreme pricing instability, while the market's 18-day window to a specific MLS match resolution creates binary event risk that may not be properly reflected in these distorted metrics. The 7-day price movement from 11¢ to 19¢ and high information arrival rate (1.7/h) suggest active discussion around this tie outcome, but the complete absence of trading activity makes this market unreliable for actual position-taking.
Resolution rules
If Tie wins the San Jose vs Austin professional MLS soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 22, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMLSGAME-26APR22SJATX-TIE yes 100