What is the current probability for "Desmond Bane: 1+ threes"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 96¢ (96% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 12, 2026. 14 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Desmond Bane: 1+ threes"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 496.8% and 13693.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Desmond Bane: 1+ threes"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Desmond Bane: 1+ threes

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 96% probability that Desmond Bane: 1+ threes. This contract trades at 96¢ on Kalshi, closing May 12, 2026.

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96¢

Bid/Ask 99/100¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $4,051.98·OI $4,220.98·Closes May 12, 2026·14d remaining

KXNBA3PT-26APR27DETORL-ORLDBANE3-1

7-day price39 snapshots · 1 regime

90¢84¢ current

Apr 2565¢Apr 28

Resolution rules

If Desmond Bane records 1+ Three Pointers in the Detroit at Orlando professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 496.8%

IY (No) 13693.4%

Adj IY 13693%

CRI 5

RV 707%

VR 2.91

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	496.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	13693.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	13693%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	707%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.91	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.8/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	11.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/28/2026, 12:09:22 AM

Indicators computed 4/28/2026, 12:08:55 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNBA3PT-26APR27DETORL-ORLDBANE3-1 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →