What is the current probability for "Alperen Sengun: 4+ assists"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 85¢ (85% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 14, 2026. 16 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Alperen Sengun: 4+ assists"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 499.3% and 10362.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Alperen Sengun: 4+ assists"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Alperen Sengun: 4+ assists

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 85% probability that Alperen Sengun: 4+ assists. This contract trades at 85¢ on Kalshi, closing May 14, 2026.

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85¢mid

Bid/Ask 82/87¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes May 14, 2026·16d remaining

KXNBAAST-26APR29HOULAL-HOUASENGUN28-4

7-day price31 snapshots · 4 regime

84¢82¢ current

Apr 2710¢Apr 27

Resolution rules

If Alperen Sengun records 4+ Assists in the Houston at Los Angeles L professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 499.3%

IY (No) 10362.6%

Adj IY 9730%

CRI 5

RV 11923%

VR 9.96

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	499.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	10362.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	9730%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	11923%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	9.96	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.9/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	10.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.06	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/28/2026, 12:55:06 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/28/2026, 12:53:55 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNBAAST-26APR29HOULAL-HOUASENGUN28-4 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →