Marcus Smart: 4+ assists

This market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 282,828% and a vol ratio of 17.91, yet the 7-day price movement from 1¢ to 67¢ suggests the market may be pricing in new information about Smart's availability or matchup dynamics. The implied yield on the "No" side (4,606%) is notably inverted compared to typical markets, indicating severe illiquidity with only $58 open interest and $123 in 24-hour volume, making the 62¢ price potentially unreliable. With 16 days to expiry and a 2 Cliff Risk Index, this contract faces significant event risk that could cause sharp repricing closer to the April 21 game date.

Resolution rules

If Marcus Smart records 4+ Assists in the Houston at Los Angeles L professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Regime

Trade