What is the current probability for "Alperen Sengun: 4+ assists"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 82¢ (82% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 9, 2026. 15 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Alperen Sengun: 4+ assists"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 500.3% and 11926.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Alperen Sengun: 4+ assists"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Alperen Sengun: 4+ assists

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 82% probability that Alperen Sengun: 4+ assists. This contract trades at 82¢ on Kalshi, closing May 9, 2026.

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82¢

Bid/Ask 83/85¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $2·OI $2·Closes May 9, 2026·15d remaining

KXNBAAST-26APR24LALHOU-HOUASENGUN28-4

7-day price57 snapshots · 5 regime

83¢83¢ current

Apr 2213¢Apr 24

Resolution rules

If Alperen Sengun records 4+ Assists in the Lakers at Rockets professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 500.3%

IY (No) 11926.5%

Adj IY 11639%

CRI 5

RV 8870%

VR 9.48

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	500.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	11926.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	11639%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	8870%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	9.48	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	12.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.02	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/24/2026, 1:21:51 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/24/2026, 1:23:14 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNBAAST-26APR24LALHOU-HOUASENGUN28-4 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →