What is the current probability for "How many freshmen players will be drafted in the top 10?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 36¢ (36% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on July 10, 2026. 71 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "How many freshmen players will be drafted in the top 10?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 909.5% and 287.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "How many freshmen players will be drafted in the top 10?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

How many freshmen players will be drafted in the top 10?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 36% probability that How many freshmen players will be drafted in the top 10?. This contract trades at 36¢ on Kalshi, closing July 10, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $2,971 open interest, and the 36-cent price implies an unusually low probability (36%) that 10 freshmen will occupy the entire top 10 of the 2026 NBA Draft—a historically rare outcome.

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36¢

Bid/Ask 36/41¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $0·OI $2,181·Closes Jul 10, 2026·71d remaining

KXNBADRAFTCAT-26FRE-10

7-day price22 snapshots · 15 regime

36¢36¢ current

Apr 833¢Apr 24

Analysis

12d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $2,971 open interest, and the 36-cent price implies an unusually low probability (36%) that 10 freshmen will occupy the entire top 10 of the 2026 NBA Draft—a historically rare outcome. The asymmetric implied yields (882.7% for Yes vs. 214.1% for No) suggest significant mispricing or that the Yes side is heavily undervalued relative to the No side's risk-reward profile. With 84 days to expiry and a modest 6-cent spread, this appears to be a low-conviction market where the lack of trading activity may be masking genuine uncertainty about draft composition.

Resolution rules

If at least 10 freshmen are drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 909.5%

IY (No) 287.8%

Adj IY 455%

CRI 2

Overround 4.5%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	909.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	287.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	455%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	4.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/29/2026, 3:42:58 PM

Indicators computed 4/29/2026, 3:38:26 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNBADRAFTCAT-26FRE-10 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →