Will the Republican Party win the PA-01 House seat?

PA-01 is pricing at perfect 50-50 odds with a notably high realized volatility of 721%, suggesting significant uncertainty or data revisions despite the neutral regime and modest 5¢ spread. The 184.5% annualized implied yield on both sides reflects the ~18-month time horizon, though the extremely thin 24-hour volume of just $42 against $13.4M open interest raises liquidity concerns and may indicate the price is not discovery-driven. The market has drifted down 5¢ from 55¢ over seven days with a Cliff Risk Index of 1, suggesting potential for sharp repricing as the 2026 election approaches and candidate information crystallizes.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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