How many freshmen players will be drafted in the top 10?
Prediction markets currently give a 94% probability that How many freshmen players will be drafted in the top 10?. This contract trades at 94¢ on Kalshi, closing July 10, 2026. This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (94%) that at least 6 of the top 10 draft picks will be freshmen, yet the zero 24-hour volume and minimal $113 open interest suggest severe liquidity constraints and potential mispricing.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (94%) that at least 6 of the top 10 draft picks will be freshmen, yet the zero 24-hour volume and minimal $113 open interest suggest severe liquidity constraints and potential mispricing. The asymmetric implied yields—27.7% for Yes versus 6,806% for No—indicate the No side is dramatically undervalued, though the high cliff risk index (16) and approaching expiry in 84 days suggest this may reflect genuine uncertainty about draft composition rather than an exploitable inefficiency. Without comparable cross-venue pricing or recent price movement, it's difficult to determine if this represents informed consensus or simply illiquid market dysfunction.
Resolution rules
If at least 6 freshmen are drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNBADRAFTCAT-26FRE-6 yes 100