What is the current probability for "Game 4: Boston at Philadelphia Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 78¢ (78% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 10, 2026. 21 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Game 4: Boston at Philadelphia Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 500.6% and 6292.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Game 4: Boston at Philadelphia Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Game 4: Boston at Philadelphia Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

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78¢

Bid/Ask 78/79¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $1,055.58·OI $1,593.04·Closes May 10, 2026·21d remaining

KXNBAGAME-26APR26BOSPHI-BOS

7-day price99 snapshots · 23 regime

82¢78¢ current

Apr 1663¢Apr 20

Analysis

10h ago

The Boston contract is trading at a steep 79¢ with an extraordinarily skewed yield profile—519% for Yes versus 5,817% for No—reflecting extreme confidence in a Boston victory, though the modest $1,395.53 open interest suggests thin liquidity that could amplify moves. The market has rallied 13 cents over seven days amid a neutral regime and 266% realized volatility, indicating significant uncertainty despite the lopsided pricing, and with 21 days to expiry and only $819 in daily volume, any new information could trigger sharp repricing in this low-liquidity venue.

Resolution rules

If Boston wins the Game 4: Boston at Philadelphia professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 500.6%

IY (No) 6292.1%

Adj IY 6212%

CRI 4

RV 193%

VR 0.85

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	500.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	6292.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	6212%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	193%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.85	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.4/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.01	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/20/2026, 9:24:06 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/20/2026, 9:23:40 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNBAGAME-26APR26BOSPHI-BOS yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →