Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035
Leader sits at 26% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 6%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before 2035
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
6¢
Before 2028
Spread
20pp
contested
24h volume
$6K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2035
3479 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will there be an at least 8
Will there be an at least 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?: Before 2027
KXEARTHQUAKECALIFORNIA-27
Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028?: Before 2028
KXEARTHQUAKECALIFORNIA-28
Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?: Before 2035
KXEARTHQUAKECALIFORNIA-35
Analysis
This market is pricing an approximately two-in-three chance that California will experience at least one magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake before the start of 2035. The 68% probability reflects scientific understanding of seismic risk in California combined with historical earthquake frequency and recent tectonic activity assessments. The main factors influencing this estimate are expert projections from the U.S. Geological Survey regarding rupture probabilities on major fault systems like the San Andreas, as well as any significant seismic events that could shift understanding of stress accumulation. The market will gradually converge toward resolution as 2035 approaches, with any major earthquakes in California during the interval providing immediate price movement. Geologists note that while large earthquakes are inevitable over long timescales, precise timing remains unpredictable.
- ›USGS probabilistic seismic hazard assessments for California's major fault systems, particularly the San Andreas, Hayward, and Cascadia interfaces
- ›Historical frequency of magnitude 8.0+ earthquakes in California over multi-century periods and recent paleoseismic data
- ›Current stress state and accumulated strain on major California fault segments as measured by GPS geodesy and seismic monitoring
- ›Any significant magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes occurring before 2035 that could alter scientific probability estimates
- ›Changes in seismic monitoring networks or revised geological models that modify expert consensus on long-term rupture probabilities
What moved the line
- Jun 18Before 2028↓5pp11→6¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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