Will there be at least 2 upsets in the 2nd Round of the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?
Prediction markets currently give a 52% probability that Will there be at least 2 upsets in the 2nd Round of the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?. This contract trades at 52¢ on Kalshi, closing May 16, 2026. This market shows extreme yield metrics (1847.8% on Yes) driven by minimal liquidity of just $101.44 open interest and a wide 12¢ spread, suggesting thin market conditions rather than genuine pricing inefficiency.
Analysis
This market shows extreme yield metrics (1847.8% on Yes) driven by minimal liquidity of just $101.44 open interest and a wide 12¢ spread, suggesting thin market conditions rather than genuine pricing inefficiency. The price has rallied sharply from 29¢ to 53¢ over seven days—a 83% move—indicating either shifting sentiment toward upset probability or speculative positioning ahead of the 30-day expiry. With only $10.44 in 24-hour volume, the market lacks depth to validate whether 53¢ fairly reflects the true probability of 2+ second-round upsets.
Resolution rules
If the teams in the Pro Basketball playoffs record at least 2 series upsets in the 2nd Round of the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNBAUPSET-26R2-2 yes 100