Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for April 2026 be above 3.4%?
Prediction markets currently give a 56% probability that Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for April 2026 be above 3.4%?. This contract trades at 56¢ on Kalshi, closing May 13, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 33,013% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 33,013% implied yield on the Yes side. The 94¢ spread is unusually wide for a binary contract, and the modest 7-day price movement (2¢ to 4¢) suggests minimal trading activity rather than genuine conviction about PPI outcomes. With only 27 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, traders should be cautious about the distorted pricing—this appears to be a thinly-traded contract where the extreme yield figures reflect illiquidity rather than genuine market expectations.
Resolution rules
If year-over-year percent change in the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for April 2026 is above 3.4%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSPPIYOY-26MAY13-T3.4 yes 100