When will COMPASS Pathways plc submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin to the FDA?
Prediction markets currently give a 84% probability that When will COMPASS Pathways plc submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin to the FDA?. This contract trades at 84¢ on Kalshi, closing April 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $8 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 75¢ price potentially unreliable despite the high implied probability.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $8 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 75¢ price potentially unreliable despite the high implied probability. The massive disparity between Yes yield (34.8%) and No yield (313.2%) suggests the market is severely mispriced, with the No side offering dramatically better risk-adjusted returns at 157%, indicating sophisticated traders view an NDA submission as unlikely despite the quoted probability. With 350 days to expiry and a modest 3 Cliff Risk Index, the market has time for resolution but the negligible liquidity and wide 9¢ spread mean any real capital deployment would face significant slippage.
Resolution rules
If COMPASS Pathways plc submits a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin to the FDA before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNEWDRUGAPPLICATIONCMPS-360-27APR01 yes 100