What is the current probability for "Will Drew Allar be the 3rd Quarterback drafted?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 7¢ (7% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 3, 2026. 9 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Drew Allar be the 3rd Quarterback drafted?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 53666.3% and 304.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Drew Allar be the 3rd Quarterback drafted?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Drew Allar be the 3rd Quarterback drafted?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Drew Allar be the 3rd Quarterback drafted?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing May 3, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1¢ price implying just 1% probability despite a massive 75¢ bid-ask spread and only $50 open interest, suggesting severe illiquidity is driving the distortion.

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7¢

Bid/Ask 3/12¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $4,837.1·OI $5,626.82·Closes May 3, 2026·9d remaining

KXNFLDRAFTQB-26P3-DALL

7-day price536 snapshots · 17 regime

20¢3¢ current

Apr 101¢Apr 24

Analysis

7d ago

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1¢ price implying just 1% probability despite a massive 75¢ bid-ask spread and only $50 open interest, suggesting severe illiquidity is driving the distortion. The astronomical 14,753% implied yield on Yes contracts combined with realized volatility exceeding 11,000% indicates this is a highly speculative micro-market where small trades create outsized price swings—the price jumped from 9¢ to 12¢ over seven days on just $30 in daily volume. With 17 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 7, the market remains volatile and unpredictable, making this suitable only for sophisticated traders comfortable with extreme uncertainty.

Resolution rules

If Drew Allar is the 3rd Quarterback drafted in the 2026 Pro Football Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 53666.3%

IY (No) 304.0%

Adj IY 30665%

CRI 13

RV 6689%

VR 2.11

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	53666.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	304.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	30665%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	13	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	6689%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.11	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.0/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.43	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/24/2026, 1:01:09 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/24/2026, 1:08:44 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNFLDRAFTQB-26P3-DALL yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →