Will there be over 6.5 total games in the Minnesota Wild vs Dallas Stars 1st Round series in the 2026 NHL playoffs?
Prediction markets currently give a 68% probability that Will there be over 6.5 total games in the Minnesota Wild vs Dallas Stars 1st Round series in the 2026 NHL playoffs?. This contract trades at 68¢ on Kalshi, closing May 16, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 42¢ spread and wildly asymmetric yields (8201.6% for Yes vs 217.3% for No), suggesting thin liquidity despite $200.67 open interest and $195.5 daily volume.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 42¢ spread and wildly asymmetric yields (8201.6% for Yes vs 217.3% for No), suggesting thin liquidity despite $200.67 open interest and $195.5 daily volume. The 37¢ price implies only a 37% probability of a series going to 7 games, which appears low given that first-round NHL matchups historically extend beyond 6 games roughly 50% of the time. With 27 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 6, the market faces significant event risk as the playoff series unfolds, making this potentially attractive for contrarian bettors willing to tolerate the illiquidity.
Resolution rules
If above 6.5 games are played in the Minnesota Wild vs Dallas Stars 1st Round series in the 2026 NHL playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNHLSERIESGAMES-26MINDALR1-7 yes 100