2027 Best Documentary Feature Film Oscar nominations?
Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that 2027 Best Documentary Feature Film Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 266.6% implied yield on the Yes side against near-zero liquidity ($0 in 24h volume, only $118 open interest), suggesting the 25¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 266.6% implied yield on the Yes side against near-zero liquidity ($0 in 24h volume, only $118 open interest), suggesting the 25¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus. The 8¢ spread is notably wide relative to the contract value, and the 624-day timeframe to the 99th Academy Awards provides substantial time for documentary nomination patterns to develop, yet the market appears abandoned with no recent trading activity. The cliff risk index of 5 indicates meaningful binary resolution uncertainty, making this a speculative position rather than a liquid hedge.
Resolution rules
If Musk has been nominated for Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOSCARNOMDOCU-27-MUS yes 100