Will there be a war with Iran?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 4% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
4%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$13K
3 contracts
Closes
Mar 1, 2027
161 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 14% of their title tokens — “Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran before Jan 1, 2027” vs “Who will be the next the head of state or government of Iran”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran before Jan 1, 2027
Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran before Jan 1, 2027?: Yes
KXPAHLAVIVISITA-27JAN01
Cluster 2
Who will be the next the head of state or government of Iran
Who will be the next the head of state or government of Iran?: Reza Pahlavi
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
Cluster 3
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran before Jan 1, 2027
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran before Jan 1, 2027?: Before 2027
KXIRANEMBASSY-27
Analysis
This 4% probability represents the chance of military conflict between the United States and Iran occurring before the end of 2026. The low estimate reflects the current geopolitical environment where despite ongoing regional tensions, direct military escalation remains unlikely in this narrow timeframe. The probability is primarily driven by two factors: recent diplomatic signals suggesting potential opening (reflected in contracts predicting embassy reopening and leadership transitions), and the absence of imminent military triggers or major escalatory incidents. The main catalyst affecting this estimate would be any significant military provocation, shipping attacks in critical waterways, or sudden changes in US-Iran diplomatic posture. However, the extremely short time horizon—just over three months remaining—means most traditional conflict-triggering mechanisms would need to accelerate rapidly to materialize.
- ›US embassy in Iran remains closed as of September 2026; reopening before year-end would suggest de-escalation trajectory
- ›Markets price Reza Pahlavi (opposition leader) at only 3¢ for next Iranian head of state, indicating low probability of regime change via military intervention this year
- ›No major naval incidents, oil facility attacks, or nuclear escalations reported recently that would typically precede direct conflict
- ›Only ~100 days remain until end-of-year resolution; most wars involve extended buildup phases longer than this window
- ›Contract volume concentration ($5,938 on Pahlavi visit contract) suggests modest market interest, not elevated concern about imminent conflict
Recently closed in iran
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- Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 10 from Jul 13, 2026 to Jul 19, 2026last 86% · 38d
- Will Trump say "Make Iran Great Again" before May 1, 2026last 5% · 52d
- Will Iran’s average daily crude oil production for June 2026 be at least 2.4M bpdlast 90% · 69d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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