Will there be a war with Iran?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 25% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
25%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$38K
6 contracts
Closes
Mar 1, 2027
267 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 7% of their title tokens — “Who will be the next the head of state or government of Iran” vs “Iran to compete in FIFA World Cup in 2026: Yes”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Who will be the next the head of state or government of Iran
Who will be the next the head of state or government of Iran?: Reza Pahlavi
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
Cluster 2
Iran to compete in FIFA World Cup in 2026: Yes
Iran to compete in FIFA World Cup in 2026: Yes
KXWCIRAN-26
Cluster 3
Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran before Jan 1, 2027
Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran before Jan 1, 2027?: Yes
KXPAHLAVIVISITA-27JAN01
Cluster 4
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran before Jan 1, 2027
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran before Jan 1, 2027?: Before 2027
KXIRANEMBASSY-27
Cluster 5
Will Iran hold a presidential election before Jan 1, 2027
Will Iran hold a presidential election before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXELECTIRAN-27JAN01
Cluster 6
Will Iran's score in the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index be at least 6 in the 2026 edition
What moved the line
- Jun 1Before Jan 1, 2027↑10pp6→16¢ · Kalshi
- May 31Before Jan 1, 2027↓6pp12→6¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2Yes↑5pp87→92¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2Before Jan 1, 2027↑4pp16→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5Yes↑3pp92→95¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in iran
- Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cuplast 97% · 2d
- Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?: 80+last 9% · 4d
- Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?: 0-10last 96% · 4d
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Maylast 3% · 4d
- Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by May 31?: ↓ 1.5Mlast 40% · 5d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in iran.
In iran
Related reading
Iran Peace Deal Odds Collapse as June Deadlines Loom
The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30 dropped 6 cents to 17%, and by July 31 fell 11 cents to 28%. This swift repricing reflects increased skepticism that the parties can reach an agreement in the near term, putting upward pressure on oil risk premium. The 'No Meeting by June 30' contract for US-Iran diplomatic meetings jumped to 67 cents.
Iran Diplomatic Hopes Fade: Peace Deal and Nuclear Contract Odds Slide
The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 crashed 15 points to 24%, and odds on a permanent peace deal by the same date fell below 25%. Oil markets are pricing in sustained geopolitical risk.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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