Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 5% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
5%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
4 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
132 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Will the US” vs “Who will be the next the head of state or government of Iran”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the US
Cluster 2
Who will be the next the head of state or government of Iran
Who will be the next the head of state or government of Iran?: Reza Pahlavi
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
Cluster 3
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?: Before 2027
KXRECOGPERSONIRAN-26
Analysis
This probability reflects the chance that Iran will deliberately damage undersea fiber-optic cables carrying internet traffic by April 30, 2027. The 11% assessment suggests market participants view such sabotage as unlikely but non-negligible. The current level reflects regional tensions and Iran's historical interest in asymmetric tactics against Western infrastructure, balanced against the operational difficulty and international consequences of cable attacks. The probability would shift upward if US-Iran relations deteriorate significantly or downward if diplomatic engagement increases. Key resolution drivers include the trajectory of US-Iran nuclear negotiations and whether any cable damage occurs before the April deadline, though attribution challenges mean ambiguous incidents may not definitively resolve the question.
- ›Iran has demonstrated capability and intent for asymmetric operations but has not previously claimed responsibility for undersea cable sabotage despite multiple incidents in contested waters
- ›US-Iran relations status by early 2027, particularly whether a nuclear deal is negotiated (currently 28% probability), strongly correlates with regional tension levels
- ›Technical feasibility for state actors remains high but requires specialized equipment; attribution of cable damage is inherently difficult, creating ambiguity in resolution
- ›Undersea cable cuts occur regularly from accidents, ship anchors, and natural causes; distinguishing deliberate Iranian sabotage from other causes would be challenging
- ›Historical precedent shows Iran uses proxy forces and deniable operations; direct attribution would likely require explicit claims or extensive forensic evidence
What moved the line
- Aug 17Before Jan 1, 2027↓4pp10→6¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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