Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 16% across 19 contracts. Kalshi at 13%, Polymarket at 20% — a 7pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
10 contracts
Polymarket
20%
9 contracts
Cross-venue gap
7pp
wide divergence
24h move
−4pp
11h ago
24h volume
$2.0M
19 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
243 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 13¢ · Polymarket 20¢ · 7pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (13¢, 10 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (20¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
10 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will the US
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before June
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUN
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before July
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUL
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before 2027
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?: December 31
0x328517…58f4
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran before Jan 1, 2027?: Before 2027
KXIRANEMBASSY-27
Cluster 2
Will the Iranian regime
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
0x789c94…92a2
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
0x9352c5…056f
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
0xbb4d51…1f3b
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
0xefc69f…c986
Cluster 3
Will Reza Pahlavi
Cluster 4
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
0x5db999…6846
Cluster 5
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
0x0c38dd…6e4a
Cluster 6
Who will dissent at the June 2026 FOMC meeting
Who will dissent at the June 2026 FOMC meeting?: Stephen Miran
KXFEDDISSENT-26JUN-STEP
Cluster 7
Who will be the next the head of state or government of Iran
Who will be the next the head of state or government of Iran?: Reza Pahlavi
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
Cluster 8
Will any U.S. Senator visit Iran before Jul 1, 2026
Will any U.S. Senator visit Iran before Jul 1, 2026?: Any U.S. Senator
KXVISITIRAN-26JUL01-ASEN
Cluster 9
Will JD Vance visit Iran before Jul 1, 2026
Will JD Vance visit Iran before Jul 1, 2026?: JD Vance
KXVISITIRAN-26JUL01-JVAN
Cluster 10
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?: Before 2027
KXRECOGPERSONIRAN-26
Analysis
This market estimates a 20% chance that Iran will sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30, 2026. The probability reflects concern about escalating regional tensions, particularly given the related high-volume contracts on regime stability and potential U.S. military action, which are trading at very low prices (3-30¢). Cable sabotage would likely occur as a response to perceived threats or as part of broader conflict escalation. The current level suggests markets view direct Iranian action against infrastructure as unlikely in the near term, though geopolitical triggers—including developments in U.S.-Iran relations, regional military movements, or proxy activities—could shift this assessment significantly. The resolution deadline of April 30, 2026 means remaining uncertainty will collapse once the date passes or verified sabotage occurs.
- ›Historical precedent: Iran or Iranian proxies have damaged submarine cables before (2022 incidents in Red Sea); current price reflects whether such actions resume
- ›Correlation with regime-change contracts: The 3¢ price on Iranian regime fall by May 31 suggests markets assign very low probability to imminent systemic collapse that might trigger desperate infrastructure attacks
- ›Escalation pathway: The 30¢ contract on U.S. invasion before 2027 represents the most concrete near-term trigger that could precipitate Iranian retaliation against critical infrastructure
- ›Technical feasibility: Iran possesses known maritime capabilities and has demonstrated ability to locate and target underwater infrastructure; the question is political decision-making rather than capability
- ›Seasonal/tactical timing: April 2026 falls within a specific window; markets are pricing the risk of sabotage during this defined period rather than assessing general vulnerability
What moved the line
- Apr 28Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?↑23pp4→27¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30Stephen Miran↓18pp32→14¢ · Kalshi
- May 2December 31↓17pp30→13¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28December 31↑16pp14→30¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?↑14pp3→17¢ · Polymarket
More like this
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In iran
Related reading
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Strait of Hormuz Normalization Reprices: May Contract Jumps +5¢ as Iran Tensions Evolve
The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by end of May jumped +5¢ to 39¢ while the April contract expired at 0¢. This repricing suggests traders see meaningful probability of a US-Iran deal or de-escalation within the next month, with direct oil market implications.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 12 min ago.