Who will win Players' Player of the Year
Leader sits at 65% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 6%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Bruno Fernandes
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
6¢
Declan Rice
Spread
59pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$114
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
556 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win Players' Player of the Year
Analysis
The current 30% probability indicates that one specific candidate is considered the second-most likely outcome in this three-way race for Players' Player of the Year, with odds suggesting meaningful uncertainty about the winner. The probability reflects trading activity concentrated on Kalshi markets where this particular candidate commands the highest price among the three available options. Key drivers of this level include recent performance metrics and voting patterns from previous years, as voters typically weight both statistical achievement and peer recognition heavily in their decision. The single largest catalyst will be the official vote tallying and announcement of the award, which typically occurs near the conclusion of the professional season. Until then, individual performances, injury status, and late-season statistics could shift these probabilities as voters finalize their preferences.
- ›Market leader priced at 30% suggests two other candidates collectively command 70% of implied probability, indicating distributed uncertainty rather than consensus
- ›Kalshi volume concentration ($75k-$36k on related Coach of the Year contracts) shows active trading interest, though Players' Player contracts show lower reported volume
- ›Highest individual contract price among three bound outcomes indicates this candidate leads peer recognition metrics but faces significant competition from other viable winners
- ›Award typically decided by player voting near season conclusion, making late-season individual performance and peer sentiment the primary resolution mechanism
- ›Historical voting patterns and current-season statistical leaders would provide anchoring data for whether 30% aligns with pre-season expectations or represents shift from baseline probability
What moved the line
- Jun 16Bruno Fernandes↑11pp48→59¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Declan Rice↓9pp14→5¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Bruno Fernandes↑8pp57→65¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17Bruno Fernandes↓4pp59→55¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Declan Rice↑3pp13→16¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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