Will a Category 5 hurricane hit the US?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
9%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7K
4 contracts
Closes
Jan 20, 2027
129 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 29% of their title tokens — “Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026” vs “Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?: Before 2027
KXRECOGPERSONIRAN-26
Cluster 2
Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Cluster 3
Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections
Cluster 4
Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections
Analysis
This probability reflects the estimated chance that at least one Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the continental United States during 2026. Currently priced at 9%, the assessment reflects typical Atlantic hurricane season patterns weighted against the relatively low frequency of Category 5 landfalls in the continental US. The probability would shift based on sea surface temperatures, atmospheric conditions, and upper-level wind patterns typical of peak hurricane season (August-October). The main driver of uncertainty changes will be real-time observations during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with late September and October representing the period when Category 5 formation becomes most climatologically likely. Historical data shows Category 5 landfalls occur roughly once per decade on average in the US, making the current 9% probability consistent with baseline seasonal risk.
- ›Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies and warm water depth in hurricane development regions as measured by NOAA in real-time during peak season
- ›Upper-level wind shear patterns and atmospheric steering mechanisms during August-October 2026 that either facilitate or inhibit major hurricane intensification
- ›Number and intensity track of named storms that reach major hurricane status during the 2026 season relative to historical seasonal averages
- ›Actual Category 5 formations in the Atlantic basin during 2026, regardless of track, as an intermediate predictor before the landfall outcome resolves
- ›Geographic proximity and track forecasts of any Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes relative to US coastlines, which determines whether landfall is physically possible
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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