Will a Category 5 hurricane hit the US?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 28% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
28%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
9 contracts
Closes
Jan 20, 2027
226 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 14% of their title tokens — “Will the United States” vs “Will Bernie Sanders endorse”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the United States
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?: Before 2027
KXRECOGPERSONIRAN-26
Will the United States Mint or the Department of the Treasury announce the official selection of a final design for a $1 coin featuring Donald Trump in 2026?
KXTRUMPDOLLAR-26
Cluster 2
Will Bernie Sanders endorse
Will Bernie Sanders endorse James Talarico in the 2026 United States Senate election in Texas before Nov 3, 2026?: James Talarico
KXBERNIEENDORSE-26NOV03-JTAL
Will Bernie Sanders endorse Dan Osborn in the 2026 United States Senate election in Nebraska before Nov 3, 2026?: Dan Osborn
KXBERNIEENDORSE-26NOV03-DOSB
Cluster 3
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Nov 4, 2026
Cluster 4
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of The United States in United States v. Hemani: Before 2026
Cluster 5
Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections
Cluster 6
Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Alaska
KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-AK
Cluster 7
Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections
What moved the line
- Jun 2Before Nov 4, 2026↑4pp18→22¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 6Before Nov 4, 2026↓3pp25→22¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 7Before 2026↑3pp16→19¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in climate
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In climate
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.