Will a Category 5 hurricane hit the US?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 24% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
24%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−1pp
3h ago
24h volume
$3K
7 contracts
Closes
Jan 20, 2027
181 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 8% of their title tokens — “Will Bernie Sanders endorse” vs “Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Bernie Sanders endorse
Will Bernie Sanders endorse James Talarico in the 2026 United States Senate election in Texas before Nov 3, 2026?: James Talarico
KXBERNIEENDORSE-26NOV03-JTAL
Will Bernie Sanders endorse Dan Osborn in the 2026 United States Senate election in Nebraska before Nov 3, 2026?: Dan Osborn
KXBERNIEENDORSE-26NOV03-DOSB
Cluster 2
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?: Before 2027
KXRECOGPERSONIRAN-26
Cluster 3
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Nov 4, 2026
Cluster 4
Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Cluster 5
Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections
Cluster 6
Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections
What moved the line
- Jul 18Before Nov 4, 2026↑9pp31→40¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 19Before Nov 4, 2026↑3pp40→43¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Before Nov 4, 2026↓3pp43→40¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in climate
- Will the minimum temperature be 52-53° on Apr 22, 2026last 37% · 6d
- Will the maximum temperature be >65° on Apr 21, 2026last 31% · 6d
- Will the minimum temperature be >71° on Apr 21, 2026last 35% · 6d
- Will the minimum temperature be 50-51° on Apr 21, 2026last 27% · 6d
- Will the maximum temperature be <63° on Apr 21, 2026last 38% · 6d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In climate
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.