What is the current probability for "Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 12¢ (12% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1052.0% and 19.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing a 12% probability of U.S.

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12¢

Bid/Ask 12/14¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $6,446.96·OI $240,671.04·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

KXRECOGPERSONIRAN-26

7-day price55 snapshots · 63 regime

15¢12¢ current

Apr 811¢Apr 19

Analysis

4d ago

The market is pricing a 12% probability of U.S. recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader by year-end 2026, with a notable 1¢ cross-venue gap versus Polymarket's 13¢, suggesting mild arbitrage opportunity. The extreme 1032.7% implied yield on Yes contracts reflects the low price and long 259-day timeframe, though the 502% realized volatility and 7-point cliff risk index indicate substantial uncertainty and tail risk. Despite $249k open interest, the modest $11.7k daily volume and 1.57 vol ratio suggest this remains a relatively illiquid, speculative position with limited conviction from either side.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 14¢(Δ -2¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.78IY 885.4%Close-time delta 29h

Resolution rules

If the United States recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1052.0%

IY (No) 19.6%

Adj IY 438%

CRI 7

EE 9.000

LAS 0.17

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1052.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	19.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	438%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
EE	9.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
LAS	0.17	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 6:51:53 PM

SF edge 10.0¢ yesObservability mediumEvent type political

Edges (4)

NO +10¢thesis — US freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs Iran — each action tells the wo

NO +17¢thesis — The United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran. After 5 weeks of airstr

NO +20¢thesis — The Hormuz Strait is America's final battle — not because it will lose militaril

NO +9¢thesis — MAGA splits over Iran war. Anti-interventionist wing vs hawks. Joe Kent resignat

Has thesisHas orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 6:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXRECOGPERSONIRAN-26 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →