What is the current probability for "Will the Secretary of State visit Oman before 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 33¢ (33% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 248 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the Secretary of State visit Oman before 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 397.9% and 54.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will the Secretary of State visit Oman before 2027?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will the Secretary of State visit Oman before 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 33% probability that Will the Secretary of State visit Oman before 2027?. This contract trades at 33¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This illiquid market shows a sharp 19% price rally over seven days to 33¢, yet zero 24-hour volume suggests the move may not reflect genuine conviction.

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33¢

Bid/Ask 27/32¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $0·OI $785·Closes Jan 1, 2027·248d remaining

KXSECSTATEVISIT-27-OMA

7-day price10 snapshots · 7 regime

32¢27¢ current

Apr 1326¢Apr 23

Analysis

11d ago

This illiquid market shows a sharp 19% price rally over seven days to 33¢, yet zero 24-hour volume suggests the move may not reflect genuine conviction. The 298.7% implied yield on the Yes side is extremely high relative to the 260-day timeframe, indicating either mispricing or market participants pricing in genuine scarcity of such diplomatic visits, though the modest $838 open interest limits confidence in price discovery.

Resolution rules

If the Secretary of State visits Oman| before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 397.9%

IY (No) 54.4%

Adj IY 199%

CRI 3

Overround 2.9%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	397.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	54.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	199%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	2.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/28/2026, 3:16:05 PM

Indicators computed 4/28/2026, 3:08:35 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXSECSTATEVISIT-27-OMA yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →