Will the Secretary of State visit Poland before 2027
Leader sits at 48% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 45%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Mexico
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
45¢
Qatar
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$14
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
189 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the Secretary of State visit
Will the Secretary of State visit Venezuela before 2027?: Venezuela
KXSECSTATEVISIT-27-VEN
Will the Secretary of State visit Cuba before 2027?: Cuba
KXSECSTATEVISIT-27-CUB
Will the Secretary of State visit Ukraine before 2027?: Ukraine
KXSECSTATEVISIT-27-UKR
Will the Secretary of State visit Switzerland before 2027?: Switzerland
KXSECSTATEVISIT-27-SWI
Will the Secretary of State visit Russia before 2027?: Russia
KXSECSTATEVISIT-27-RUS
Will the Secretary of State visit Qatar before 2027?: Qatar
KXSECSTATEVISIT-27-QAT
Will the Secretary of State visit Oman before 2027?: Oman
KXSECSTATEVISIT-27-OMA
Will the Secretary of State visit Mexico before 2027?: Mexico
KXSECSTATEVISIT-27-MEX
Will the Secretary of State visit Poland before 2027?: Poland
KXSECSTATEVISIT-27-POL
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that the U.S. Secretary of State will visit Poland at some point before 2027. The 67% probability is the highest among several potential international visits being tracked, suggesting traders view a Poland visit as more likely than trips to China (the current leader in this contract set), Cuba, or other destinations. The probability is likely influenced by Poland's strategic importance to U.S. foreign policy, ongoing regional geopolitical dynamics, and the typical diplomatic schedule of State Department leadership. Shifts in this probability would depend on scheduled state visits, diplomatic incidents, or changes in U.S. priorities toward Central Europe. The resolution will depend on official State Department travel records and whether any visit occurs before January 1, 2027.
- ›Poland's status as a NATO ally and key partner in European security strategy affects likelihood of diplomatic visits
- ›The typical frequency and geographic distribution of Secretary of State visits across comparable allied nations
- ›Any major geopolitical events or diplomatic initiatives in Central Europe that might accelerate or delay official visits
- ›The current Secretary of State's established travel schedule and known diplomatic priorities through 2026
- ›Contractual terms and definition of what constitutes an official "visit" according to VISITAREA rules
What moved the line
- Jun 19Cuba↓7pp39→32¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Cuba↓3pp32→29¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Switzerland↑3pp39→42¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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