Will the Secretary of State visit Venezuela before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 34% probability that Will the Secretary of State visit Venezuela before 2027?. This contract trades at 34¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a $1,520 open interest, suggesting the 37¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a $1,520 open interest, suggesting the 37¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus. The 249.9% implied yield on the Yes side is unusually high and likely reflects the thin liquidity rather than true market conviction, with the 5¢ spread indicating difficulty in execution. The modest 3¢ downward price drift over seven days and neutral regime score suggest limited recent information flow, making this contract suitable primarily for long-term conviction bets rather than active trading.
Resolution rules
If the Secretary of State visits Venezuela| before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSECSTATEVISIT-27-VEN yes 100