Will Scott Brown be the Republican nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will Scott Brown be the Republican nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 4¢ spread, suggesting minimal trader interest in a Scott Brown nomination scenario that the market prices at just 10%.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 4¢ spread, suggesting minimal trader interest in a Scott Brown nomination scenario that the market prices at just 10%. The extraordinarily high implied yield of 2852.6% on the Yes side reflects the illiquidity premium rather than genuine conviction, as the modest $4,679 open interest and 200-day timeframe to the 2026 primary indicate this is a thinly-traded niche contract. The moderate cliff risk index of 16 and neutral regime suggest the market could experience sharp repricing if Brown signals serious candidacy, but current pricing reflects consensus skepticism about his nomination prospects.
Also on polymarket at 4¢(Δ +2¢)
Resolution rules
If Scott Brown wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class II New Hampshire Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSENATENHR-26-SB yes 100