Will Napoli finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?
Prediction markets currently give a 85% probability that Will Napoli finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?. This contract trades at 85¢ on Kalshi, closing May 25, 2026. The 85¢ price on Kalshi significantly undervalues Napoli's top-4 prospects compared to Polymarket's 96¢ quote, creating an 11-cent arbitrage gap that suggests mispricing or liquidity constraints on the smaller venue.
Analysis
The 85¢ price on Kalshi significantly undervalues Napoli's top-4 prospects compared to Polymarket's 96¢ quote, creating an 11-cent arbitrage gap that suggests mispricing or liquidity constraints on the smaller venue. With only $4,067 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, the thin liquidity and 18¢ spread make this market illiquid and potentially unreliable for large position sizing. The extreme realized volatility of 1578% and asymmetric implied yields (413% for Yes versus 2477% for No) indicate high uncertainty, though with just 36 days to expiry and the 2025-26 season likely well underway, the market should be converging toward resolution rather than showing this level of pricing dispersion.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Napoli is a Top 4 Finisher in the 2025-26 Serie A season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSERIEATOP4-26-NAP yes 100