Will SNP win above 56 seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?
Prediction markets currently give a 82% probability that Will SNP win above 56 seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?. This contract trades at 82¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2027. The market is pricing in a strong SNP performance at 81%, but the extremely asymmetric yield profile—with No contracts offering 403.6% versus 22.2% for Yes—signals minimal liquidity and suggests the tight 1¢ spread masks thin order books.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a strong SNP performance at 81%, but the extremely asymmetric yield profile—with No contracts offering 403.6% versus 22.2% for Yes—signals minimal liquidity and suggests the tight 1¢ spread masks thin order books. With $3.2 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, this is essentially a dead market where the high price likely reflects stale quotes rather than active conviction, making any position difficult to exit profitably before the May 2027 expiration.
Resolution rules
If SNP has won above 56 seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSNPMAJORITY-26MAY07-A56 yes 100