Will Deckers Outdoor Corporation be removed from the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Deckers Outdoor Corporation be removed from the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of $181.22, making the 6414.6% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical and unreliable for actual trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of $181.22, making the 6414.6% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical and unreliable for actual trading. The 7% probability reflects an extremely low removal likelihood for a major index constituent, which is reasonable given that S&P 500 removals are rare events typically triggered by bankruptcy, delisting, or significant corporate restructuring—none of which appear imminent for Deckers. The 2¢ spread and stable 76-day timeframe suggest this is a niche speculative contract with minimal market conviction, and any position would face severe execution challenges.
Resolution rules
If Deckers Outdoor Corporation is announced to be or is officially removed from S&P 500 during April 1, 2026 to June 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSP500REMOVEQ-26JUL01-DECK yes 100