Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50?
Prediction markets currently give a 76% probability that Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50?. This contract trades at 76¢ on Kalshi, closing January 7, 2027. Aubry Bracco's odds have compressed significantly from 81¢ to 71¢ over seven days, suggesting recent information has reduced her perceived winning chances despite maintaining a 72% implied probability.
Analysis
Aubry Bracco's odds have compressed significantly from 81¢ to 71¢ over seven days, suggesting recent information has reduced her perceived winning chances despite maintaining a 72% implied probability. The massive 339.9% implied yield on the "No" side combined with 105% realized volatility indicates substantial uncertainty and potential mispricing, though the tight 1¢ spread and $1.4M open interest suggest reasonable liquidity for a niche entertainment market. With 263 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the high info arrival rate (0.5/h) means this market remains sensitive to casting announcements or pre-season Survivor coverage that could shift sentiment further.
Resolution rules
If Aubry Bracco is officially declared the winner of Survivor Season 50 before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSURVIVOR-26DEC31-AUB yes 100