What is the current probability for "Will Tesla Inc report above 0 Semi Trucks Produced before Jan 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 95¢ (95% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 246 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Tesla Inc report above 0 Semi Trucks Produced before Jan 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 7.8% and 2821.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Will Tesla Inc report above 0 Semi Trucks Produced before Jan 2027?

Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Will Tesla Inc report above 0 Semi Trucks Produced before Jan 2027?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027.

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95¢

Bid/Ask 95/99¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $52.91·OI $4,495.36·Closes Jan 1, 2027·246d remaining

KXTESLASEMI-27JAN-0

7-day price102 snapshots · 3 regime

95¢95¢ current

Apr 987¢Apr 30

Resolution rules

If Tesla Inc reports above 0 Semi Trucks Produced in Any Quarter before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 7.8%

IY (No) 2821.2%

Adj IY 2821%

CRI 19

RV 84%

VR 2.90

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	7.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	2821.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2821%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	84%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.90	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/30/2026, 7:27:59 PM

Observability mediumEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/30/2026, 7:23:09 PM

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View on kalshi →sf trade KXTESLASEMI-27JAN-0 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

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