Will SpaceX launch another Starship by May 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 82% probability that Will SpaceX launch another Starship by May 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 82¢ on Kalshi, closing June 1, 2026. The market is pricing in an 83% probability of a Starship launch by end-May 2026, with the price surging from 65¢ to 82¢ over the past week, suggesting recent positive sentiment around SpaceX's launch cadence.
Analysis
The market is pricing in an 83% probability of a Starship launch by end-May 2026, with the price surging from 65¢ to 82¢ over the past week, suggesting recent positive sentiment around SpaceX's launch cadence. The extreme 3680% implied yield on the "No" side reflects the sharp cliff risk (score of 5) as we approach the June 1 expiry in just 45 days, though low 24-hour volume of $958 and modest open interest of $33.6k indicate thin liquidity that could amplify price swings. The 182% realized volatility and 1.31 vol ratio suggest this contract has experienced significant price gyrations, likely driven by SpaceX test flight announcements and regulatory updates.
Resolution rules
If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 12 before June 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-12-26MAY31 yes 100