Donald Trump and John Thune meet before May 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 28% probability that Donald Trump and John Thune meet before May 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 28¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1,107.55 open interest, suggesting traders are holding positions but unwilling to transact at current prices.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1,107.55 open interest, suggesting traders are holding positions but unwilling to transact at current prices. The 75¢ price has declined sharply from 91¢ over seven days, indicating growing skepticism about a Trump-Thune meeting occurring within the next two weeks, though the astronomical 8205% implied yield on the "No" side reflects the tiny $0.25 spread and minimal liquidity rather than genuine conviction. With only 14 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 3, this market faces significant binary resolution risk where late-breaking news could trigger sudden repricing.
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump and John Thune meet (including phone calls) before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPMEET-26APR-JTHU yes 100