Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in April?
Prediction markets currently give a 65% probability that Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in April?. This contract trades at 65¢ on Kalshi, closing May 8, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1 in 24-hour volume against $768.72 open interest, creating a wide 10¢ spread and inflated yield metrics (877% on Yes, 3304.6% on No) that don't reflect realistic returns.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1 in 24-hour volume against $768.72 open interest, creating a wide 10¢ spread and inflated yield metrics (877% on Yes, 3304.6% on No) that don't reflect realistic returns. The price has surged dramatically from 46¢ to 66¢ over seven days, suggesting either new information about labor market deterioration or thin-book volatility rather than fundamental repricing. With 21 days to resolution and a neutral regime score, the 67¢ price implies modest recession risk, but the minimal trading activity and extreme yield figures warrant caution on position sizing.
Resolution rules
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.2% in April 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXU3-26APR-T4.2 yes 100